Early on Saturday, October 8th, 2022 a blast on the bridge connecting Russia to Crimea destroyed two road spans. The root of the explosion is still unknown, but Russian sources claim a truck exploded and accuse Ukrainian intelligence services of being behind the alleged operation (Iqbal, 2022). The partial destruction of the bridge has real and immediate consequences on Russia behaviour and the course of the war.
Putin and the bridge to Crimea
The attack on the bridge is a symbolic and physical humiliation for Putin. It was a personal project of the leader’s after the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. The bridge, which was also illegally built, was inaugurated in 2018 as Vladimir Putin himself drove across it for the first time. The building was overseen by close friends of Putin and cost around 3.5 billion dollars (Iqbal, 2022).
Crimea is a special place for Putin. It is the first objective in his plan to reunite historical Russia (Iqbal, 2022). It is a part of a narrative centred around recreating a greater country that once also encompassed Ukraine and Belarus. Putin’s expansionist aims have cemented in Crimea, which he and his ardent supporters see as a successful beginning in his grand scheme.
It is a great embarrassment to Putin himself that the bridge over the Kerch Strait was targeted. Without its prosperous existence, Putin has little to show for the billions he has spent in deploying troops and building infrastructure. The blow also came as a late birthday present to the president, who turned 70 the previous day.
A turn in the war?
The explosion should be seen within the wider context of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Russia is increasingly appearing weaker as Ukrainian forces recapture territories from Russian troops. Ukraine says it has retaken five settlements in the north-east of the Kherson region, located near the strategic Black Sea and Dnieper River (Boffey, 2022). Russia has also been losing territory in the north-east around Kharkiv, where towns are being liberated by Ukrainian forces (Iqbal, 2022). The military defeats are prompting criticism within Russia, where ultra-nationalists are calling on Putin to escalate the war (Iqbal, 2022).
Close observers of the invasion also report that the Russian military is utterly exhausted and close to depletion (Iqbal, 2022). The cost to Russia, in terms of equipment and people, is absolutely huge. Without the bridge, maintaining this war comes at an even greater cost to Putin.
The bridge serves as a strategic route to supply manpower, weapons and fuel to the frontlines in south-eastern Ukraine. The bridge is also a crucial connection between Crimea and Russia. Without it, Crimea is extremely isolated and nothing gets through to those on the ground. Essentially, without this bridge, Russia cannot operate Crimea (Iqbal, 2022).
Russian revenge
It was clear to the international community that the attack on the bridge would not go unanswered by Putin. Given the level of humiliation this represents, it was likely that the response would be severe, and it was.
Starting on Monday, Russia launched a bombing campaign unlike any seen since the start of the war in February of this year. Cities and regions across Ukraine were targeted, most notably Kyiv and Lviv.
In Kyiv, things had almost gone back to normal for the population, except the occasional airstrikes all but ignored by residents of the city. On Monday, October 10th, 2022, however, the capital was struck for the first time since the early days of the war. Missiles hit during traffic rush-hour, hitting a famous park and one of Kiev’s busiest streets. In Zaporizhzhya, a Russian missile killed 17 people when it hit a building in the middle of the night – residents were sleeping and posed no threat to Russian forces (Aarup, 2022).
Russia is not only targeting civilian centres, but energy and crucial infrastructures. In Lviv, the missiles struck a power plant, leaving countless without electricity or hot water. Strikes on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant caused the loss of the last remaining power sources. The plant is now running on emergency generators in order to protect nuclear safety (Stolton, 2022).
Putin’s mission here is clear: inflict as much damage as possible on civilians in Ukraine and make the winter utterly intolerable. By targeting key energy infrastructure, Russia is clearly trying to terrorize Ukrainian cities and people by creating unbearable conditions when temperatures drop below zero (Bayer, 2022).
This has been a pattern of Russia’s throughout this conflict, but also beyond. In the last week, Putin has appointed Sergey Surovikin to oversee the war effort in Ukraine, demonstrating an increase in brutality and ruthlessness on Russia’s side. Surovikin oversaw Russian forces in Syria, on and off between 2017 and 2020. He has been recognized by Human Rights Watch as responsible for human rights violations during the 2019-2020 offensive in Idlib (Sheftalovich, 2022). Needless to say that his latest appointment is deeply concerning.
A British attorney maintained that the most damage is on civilians and civilian infrastructure, rather than destroying military structures and operations. This deliberate targeting of innocent civilians and vital energy infrastructure could constitute a war crime under international law (Gilbody-Dickerson, 2022).
What is next?
Western leaders have come together to decide on next steps in aiding Ukraine survive this latest flurry of attacks. Germany has vowed to speed up its provision of IRIS-T air defense systems and the U.S. has pledged to send NASAMS missiles (Bayer, 2022). Ukraine has emphasized its need for air defense systems in order to intercept missiles that come into Ukrainian air space.
The future is extremely concerning for Ukrainians still on the ground. Russia is clearly planning an escalation of the war with the deployment of 220 000 additional soldiers and the increase in missile attacks. The destruction of water, energy and the slowing of nuclear plants poses a real threat to civilians, especially as the months grow colder.
Sources and Further Reading:
Aarup, S.A. (2022, October 9). Putin summons security council after Crimean bridge blast. Politico. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-summons-security-council-crimea-kerch-bridge-blast/.
Bayer, L. (2022, October 12). Putin’s losing. Now what?. Politico. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-president-vladimir-putin-losing-war-ukraine-now-what/
Boffey, D. (2022, October 13). Russia announces Kherson evacuation, raising fear city will become frontline. The Guardian. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/13/russia-announces-kherson-evacuation-raising-fears-city-will-become-frontline.
Gilbody-Dickerson, C. (2022, October 12). Ukraine war: Russia missile attack prompt war crimes probe as cities rocked by more explosions. The i. Retrieved on 15 October 2022 from https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-war-russia-missile-attacks-prompt-war-crimes-probe-as-cities-rocked-by-more-explosions/ar-AA12SBQp.
Iqbal, N. (Hosts). (2022, October 13th). Putin’s revenge for the Crimea bridge attack. (Audio podcast episode). In Today in Focus. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/audio/2022/oct/13/putin-revenge-crimea-bridge-attack-podcast
Kuznetsov, S. (2022, October 8). Blast on Russia bridge to Crimea threatens Moscow supply route. Politico. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-kerch-bridge-crimea-partially-destroyed-explosion/.
Kuznetsov, S. (2022, October 8). Putin backers urge strong retaliation for Kerch Bridge blast. Politico. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-backers-urge-strong-retaliation-for-kerch-bridge-blast/.
Sheftalovich, Z. (2022, October 10). Kyiv calls for air defenses as Putin brings his Syria tactics to Ukraine. Politico. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.politico.eu/article/kyiv-calls-for-air-defenses-as-putin-brings-his-syria-tactics-to-ukraine/.
Stolton, S. (2022, October 8). Ukraine nuclear plant loses external power amid ongoing shelling. Politico. Retrieved on 14 October 2022 from https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-last-external-power-amid-ongoing-shelling/.
