Introduction
The disputed region of Kashmir has caused tensions between India and Pakistan for decades. Between April and May 2025, international attention was brought to the area again as violence between the two countries escalated following a terrorist attack that killed twenty-six travellers in the disputed Kashmir region.
History of the conflict
Kashmir is the northernmost region of the Indian subcontinent, and the two sovereign states of India and Pakistan have been contested its control since its creation. The conflict dates back to 1947, when both India and Pakistan gained their independence from Britain.
The Kashmir region was independent at the time, and it had some peculiar characteristics.It had a highly diverse population, the majority of whom were Muslim, setting it apart in a subcontinent where Hindus formed the majority. Today, studies indicate that more than 60 percent of the current Kashmir population is Muslim.
In 1947, when the maharaja, the independent ruler of Kashmir, was given the choice to join either of the newly independent states, he chose to join India in return for its help against an invasion of tribesmen from Pakistan. Thus, Kashmir, whose population was mostly Muslim, became part of India, whose population was mostly Hindu.
Tensions between the two religious groups started immediately, and war broke out, forcing the United Nations (UN) to intervene. The UN recommended that the parties involved hold an election for the Kashmir inhabitants to decide which state they wanted to join.
The vote never took place, and military presence in the Kashmir region intensified until, in July 1949, India and Pakistan signed an agreement to establish a ceasefire line, upon a suggestion from the UN, thus dividing the Kashmir region into two parts. The Line of Control, the name of the ceasefire line and of the de facto border between India and Pakistan, was created, separating the most populated area of Kashmir under Indian control and the poorer, less populated area under Pakistani control. The Line of Control still exists and is a tangible proof that Kashmir has been divided into two regions since 1949.
A second war followed in 1965, and another brief but intense conflict broke out in 1999. India and Pakistan still claim full control over Kashmir, but, in reality, they only control a portion of its territory. Nonetheless, since 1999, international concern over the conflict intensified after both belligerent parties were declared nuclear powers (BBC, 2025).
Despite continuous tensions and violent actions between the two neighbouring countries, including an armed revolt that has been ongoing against India since 1989, India’s accusations that Pakistan supports militants in Kashmir, and recurring missile strikes and shelling attacks, in 2019, Kashmir was denied its special, semi-autonomous status. From that point until the April 2025 terrorist attack, military presence in the region had been gradually decreasing, while the number of Indian tourists crossing into Kashmir steadily increased. Nevertheless, the region remains one of the most militarised areas in the world (Global Conflict Tracker, 2025).
It is interesting to consider the conflict between India and Pakistan through the lens of international alliances and geopolitical shifts over the years. On the one hand, the United States, which had always supported Pakistan against India to secure it as an ally in the war in Afghanistan.However, this stance shifted under the Trump administration, which is now closely supporting India and its Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. On the other hand, China has now replaced the US as the strongest Pakistani ally. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran have maintained involvement in the region without showing clear support for either side (Internazionale, 2025).
The Latest crisis
On April 22nd, 2025, a group of militants attacked several Indian tourists in Kashmir, killing twenty-five Indian nationals and one Nepalese national in what has been described as the deadliest terrorist attack carried out in Indian territory since 2008. The attack, known as the Pahalgam attack, was ruthless. According to witnesses, the victims were ambushed by a small group of terrorists, between three and five men, as survivors reported, while visiting the Baisaran Valley. All witnesses agree that the attack specifically targeted non-Muslim tourists, as the perpetrators asked their victims for their religion before killing all the Christians and Hindus and sparing the Muslims. present, while saving the Muslims.
Further reports from survivors of the attack report that the terrorists separated women and children from the men and asked the latter to recite some verses, part of a Muslim declaration of faith. Those unable to comply were shot on the spot (Reuters, 2025). The total number of victims of the terrorist attack reached twenty-six, including the twenty-five Hindu tourists and the Nepalese pony rider, who was guiding the tour and was shot dead when he tried to tackle one of the terrorists.
While Pakistan denied any involvement in the terrorist attack, India promptly accused it of providing refuge to the attackers and arrested two Pakistani nationals as suspects. It is worth noticing that, at the time of writing, no terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the attack, neither from the Indian side nor the Pakistani side. Although right after the attack, The Resistance Front (TRF), an armed group advocating Kashmir’s secession from India, claimed responsibility for the attack, the group then retracted responsibility on April 26th (NDTV, 2025).
The reactions from India and Pakistan within hours of the attack left no doubts that tensions were high and the risk of military escalation was real. Reports confirm that both countries exchanged fire across the Line of Control a few hours after the terrorist attack had been discovered. Given the highly militarised nature of the region and the risk of further escalation, the UN also took a position on the situation by condemning the terrorist attack, underlining the need to hold perpetrators accountable.
India’s response
Indian Prime Minister Modi released a statement after the attack, strongly condemning the perpetrators and declaring that India would show no mercy. Actions soon followed his words as India reduced its ties with Pakistan by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, revoking visa-free entry for Pakistani travellers, and closing the Attari border that allowed crossing between the two countries.
Particularly striking was the suspension of the Water Treaty, which raised concerns and was described by Pakistan as an “act of war,” as it showed India’s intention to block water supplies to Pakistan. This is the first time the Treaty has been suspended since it was signed in 1960, and represents a strong move from the Indian government, as the Treaty regulates the amount of water that can enter Pakistan from the Hindu basin. This reserve of water is particularly important for Pakistan, as 80 percent of Pakistani agriculture depends on the water coming from India, whose access is regulated by the Treaty (BBC, 2025).
Pakistan’s response
Even if Pakistan kept denying any involvement with the terrorist group that carried out the attack, Islamabad decided to show India that the country was able to defend itself if attacked. In fact, Pakistan’s response to India’s measures included the rejection of the suspension of the Water Treaty, the interruption of bilateral trade, and the closure of Pakistani airspace to all Indian commercial airlines (Al Jazeera, 2025).
Operation Sindoor
On the military level, India reacted to the attack harshly by launching Sindoor operation on 6th May, 2025. This military operation, whose name draws inspiration from the bright red colour used in Hindu ceremonies and worn by married Hindu women, allowed India to carry out missile strikes across the border with Pakistan, allegedly targeting nine terrorist bases.
According to Indian officials, the Operation Sindoor was intended to deter Pakistan and prevent it from escalating the conflict, but Pakistan claims the strikes killed over 40 Pakistani civilians. Although the number of Pakistani casualties cannot be verified accurately, videos showing Indian missiles hitting mosques and civilian buildings during the night leave no doubt as to the dimension of India’s response. Pakistan’s response to India’s Operation Sindoor included an attack on at least five Indian air jets and the launching air strikes not only in Kashmir but also in other Indian regions, such as Punjab and Rajasthan. India has not released any data on how many Indian casualties Pakistani air strikes caused (ICCT, 2025).
Current status of things
After a meeting mediated by US President Trump, the military response between India and Pakistan seems to have stopped. Even though tensions between the two countries remain relatively high and some restrictive measures adopted in retaliation, such as the suspension of the Water Treaty, remain in place, experts believe that the air strikes carried out by the two countries on May 6th were the last instance of extreme violence used as a response to the attack and that the risk of further escalation is now limited.
In fact, after the attack, both countries needed to show they were ready to prosecute the offenders and they were ready to fight for their citizens without backing down in front of the enemy. Hence, Indian Prime Minister Modi launched missiles against Pakistan to prove India’s military strength and to show Indian citizens that such a horrendous crime would not go unpunished. On the other side of the border, the Pakistani government had to show its population that Pakistan would not be intimidated by Indian missiles and would be ready to fight.
According to Diego Maiorano, professor of contemporary Indian history at Napoli University, once both countries had shown their power and made a point with their population, there is currently no need to further escalate the conflict (Internazionale, 2025).
Conclusion
As mentioned above, tensions between India and Pakistan have been ongoing for more than seventy years. The latest terrorist attack has brought yet another crisis between the two nuclear powers, whose relations were further strained. The prompt and decisive response shown by both belligerent sides in the aftermath of the attack proves that neither India nor Pakistan intends to give up on the Kashmir region. The presence, in both territories, of armed groups that fight for control of the region does not facilitate any dialogue or mediation attempt.
When the TRF took credit for the attack, they also explained the purpose of the violence, namely to push the Kashmir population to overthrow Indian power and come under Pakistani control. Although TRF eventually denied any involvement in the attack, such a strong statement shows how deeply rooted the India-Pakistan conflict actually is. Furthermore, it is important to remember that the suspension of the Water Treaty is still in place, and if India decides to enforce it when the dry season hits Pakistan, the survival of Pakistani citizens is at risk. Finally, more decisive action from the international community is needed as an attempt to mitigate the effects of widespread violence in the two countries.
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